Victory has a thousand fathers, but Donald Trump’s 2024 comeback has one cause that outweighs all others and has been underappreciated: the shift in the Latino vote. According to CNN exit polls, Joe Biden outpolled Mr. Trump among Latinos nationwide by 23 points, 65% to 32%. Four years later, Kamala Harris’s lead was only 5 points, 51% to 46%. That 18-point shift is far greater than the move in Mr. Trump’s favor among blacks (2 points) or Asians (12 points), and Ms. Harris actually narrowed Mr. Trump’s advantage with white voters by 2 points.
Latino votes were decisive in most of the states that switched from Mr. Biden to Mr. Trump, and nowhere more so than in Nevada.